Pitching match-ups

I read what I thought was an interesting post at the The Bard's Room - a White Sox blog on the MVN network of blogs - the post is an analysis of the value provided by 'slot' starters - that is, the relative performance of guys in the #1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 slots:

Here are the MLB average ERAs for each slot:

#1: 3.60
#2: 4.14
#3: 4.58
#4: 5.10
#5: 6.24

The post then provides the same ERA information for the AL:

#1: 3.70
#2: 4.24
#3: 4.58
#4: 5.09
#5: 6.22

The lack of difference between the two leagues actually surprised me quite a bit. However, the difference in quality between the slots really got me thinking - a 68% decline in ERA between the #1 and #5 slots is over 2 runs a start... a crucial difference in winning a game.

How did the Red Sox match up against this?

#1: 3.97
#2: 5.01
#3: 4.63
#4: 5.73
#5: 6.04

I used Schilling as our #1, but put Beckett in the #2 slot, and Wakefield in the #3 - I know they didn't start in that order, but I think it reflects the reality. For the #4 and #5 slots, the ERA is an amalgam of the numbers put up by Clement and Lester (for the #4), and Wells, Tavarez, Johnson, DiNardo, Gabbard, Jarvis, Pauley and Hansack (for the #5), but unadjusted for any bullpen numbers that they put up.

Clearly not pretty - better than average in the #5 slot, but everywhere else... below average, and quite significantly below in the #1 and #2 slots.

What interested me in all this, was how relevant is the slotting - we all in our minds have an idea of who is our #1 starter, #2 and so on - but does that matter - how often do they match up against the other team's #1, #2 etc...? (and this really is under the mildly interesting, but not particularly useful category of analysis)

The following table shows this data for the Red Sox match-ups in 2006:

	Opponent
	1	2	3	4	5
1	7	10	3	1	10
2	13	5	6	3	6
3	4	7	5	2	5
4	6	1	3	7	10
5	8	4	11	10	15

(With the Red Sox rotation rank on the vertical axis)

I allocated a rotation 'rank' by looking at the start of season rotation order, with some adjustments made for guys who would have started in a specific slot, but for injury - AJ Burnett being a good example - he would presumably have been the Blue Jays #2 behind Halladay had he been fit. For any team (including the Red Sox) where a starter was used who was not in the initial rotation, and would not have been in it had he been fit (pick any one of the gang of 8 above for the Red Sox for example), I ranked them as a #5.

As I said further up, this is more interesting than useful, but does perhaps show that we shouldn't get too caught up in any Red Sox spring training debate on the rotation order - all of our starters will see their fair share of 'ace' match-ups. The run differential between starter slots is really only crucial when they are matched up against a starter slot where the differential exists... but as the table above shows, those significant mis-matches are really quite common.

Christmas Day stunner - Randy wants out

It may not be Christmas Day anymore, but 48 hours ago, when it was, Yankee fans were shocked by the news that the Yankees and Diamondbacks were locked in talks over moving lefty Randy Johnson to the desert.

Since then, it has become clear that Randy, whilst not requesting a trade, and told Yankees GM Brian Cashman that he wouldn't mind a move out west, this has caused the Yankees to open up talks with the D-Backs (who are said to be heavily interested in the Big Unit) Padres, Dodgers, Angels and Giants, although it is thought that the major players are the D-Backs and the Padres.

With Randy having a full No Trade Clause, Cashman is only talking with the teams that fulfills Randy's west coast criteria. Despite coming off a disappointing 2006 campaign, it seems as though teams are genuinely interested in Johnson, who is coming off back surgery and has as much cartilage in his knee as there is alcohol in a Lemonade Shandy.

The Yankees are keen to shed the $16m salary off the pay roll and are being potentially greedy by wanting top prospects in return. This sounds too good to be true but with a couple of teams looking genuinely interested in the lefty, it somehow make not be totally unrealistic.

Of course as it stands, should Randy be moved on, it would mean that the Bombers are relying on Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa in the rotation, but it opens up room for either Barry Zito or Roger Clemens, two players that would certainly be an upgrade over Johnson in the AL East in 2007.

Zito: I want the Yankees

With Barry Zito now the only big name Free Agent pitcher on the market, the question is firstly who will land the laid back lefty and secondly how much money they'll have to dish out for his services over the past part of the next decade.

If it was up to the player himself, it'd be the New York Yankees.

A person with knowledge of the situation told 3,079 Miles... on the condition of anonymity that the Bronx was without a doubt the former Cy Young's preferred destination .

With a career 102-63 record with a 3.55 ERA, Zito is expected to command a deal around the $100m mark over six years. With the market being inflated this year with the likes of Gil Meche going for 5/$55m, there is little doubt that the player will receive a bumper salary.

It was thought that the Rangers and the Mets were the only likely destinations, but now it seems as though Zito may even take less money to join the Bronx Bombers a la Carlos Beltran, who was ready to leave $20m on the table in order to man CF in The House That Ruth Built.

The Yankees have no obvious spot for Zito, with a rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Mussina and Randy Johnson all but inked in with Carl Pavano or Kei Igawa set to battle in out for the #5 spot. However should they be able to snap up Zito at a reasonable price, it would enable them to trade Pavano and not pull the trigger on signing Igawa, the Japanese lefty whom they have exclusive negotiating rights with up until December 28.

Zito and the Yankees don't seem like an obvious fit, certainly now Andy Pettitte is on board but it looks like they could actually be serious players in the Barry Zito sweepstakes should they want to.

Cashman brings back Pettitte

Three years and one draft pick (which was spent on Philip Hughes) later, the Yankees and Andy Pettitte once more became allies as the left hander agreed to a one year $16million contract today with a player option for 2008 also at $16million. The deal has been confirmed but is still dependent on the player passing a physical to be taken at some point next week.

$16million is probably too much for the 34 year-old but in this market and considering the arms the Yankees have down in Triple-A (Hughes, Clippard and Sanchez) this deal was one that has worked well for both parties.

Pettitte, who has four World Series rings gained with the Bombers in 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2000. He also pitched terrifically in the 2003 World Series, going 1-1 with a 0.57 ERA. His biggest disappointment for the Yankees in postseason play was in 2001 where the lefty was tipping his pitches on a balmy night out in the desert as the Diamondbacks took Pettitte apart in Game 6 of the World Series.

Suddenly the Yankees rotation looks more solid, Wang and Mussina were both top ten pitchers in ERA last time around in the AL. Randy Johnson will now go into the season as the #4 starter on the Yankees behind Wang, Pettitte and Moose with lefty Kei Igawa or Carl Pavano vying for the final spot in the rotation.

I may not ever of been Andy Pettitte's biggest fan but this is a wise move by the Yankees, 2/$32m at most for Pettitte is better than 4/$40m for Lilly or 5/$55m for Meche is my eyes, let alone the 6/$102m that Bob Klapisch is reporting the Rangers have offered Barry Zito.

Now lets go and get the Rocket ;)

Democracy is dead, long live democracy

Well it turns out, the Red Sox front office didn't listen to these guys after all - the JD Drew deal is apparently done, though with seemingly little fanfare.

What is more worrying in this story is the quote from Boras regarding the Dice-K negotiations:

"Matsuzaka has a dream of pitching in the major leagues. And he's going to fulfill that dream," Boras said. "The timeframe of it, I can't exactly predict. But he knows his skill level is one where he's going to be a major leaguer someday."

Boras also questioned the fairness of a system that could allow Seibu to get more money than Matsuzaka.

"The elephant in the room always is the principle of allocation," he said. "[That's] something that we don't normally have to deal with. We're all trying to create the saddle to ride the elephant, so we'll see."

The earlier version of the story included a line that quoted Boras saying that the '3 parties would need to compromise' to reach a deal - given that MLB have already said this is not permissable, it does seem that a significant spanner exists. The comment about the fairness of the situation where Seibu receive more than Matsuzaka is presumably what Boras was alluding to in the earlier quote.

Pettitte moves towards return to the Bronx

In a move that would probably surprise most baseball fans, Andy Pettitte looks like he could be on his way back to the Yankees. The 34 year-old Free Agent who hasn't confirmed that he wants to play on has given a strong enough hint that his agents have been quoted as saying that they are in negotiations with the Bombers over his possible return to the Bronx.

Pettitte, who recorded a 21 win season in his last under Joe Torre back in 2003, would probably he available on a two year deal, possibly even one year with an option giving the Yankees a short term bridge to Philip Hughes, the man who incidentally, the Yankees got using the draft pick they received from Houston when they signed Pettitte as a Free Agent after that 2003 season.

If Pettitte did return to the Yankees then firstly it would be a great move by Cashman, secondly it would re-ignite talk of Andy's best mate the Rocket also coming back to the Yankees for one final stint. If Pettitte signs with the Yanks then I think you could rule out a dream return for the Rocket in Beantown as I can't see them wanting to play for opposing sides going at each other.

This news has excited me.

ESPN buys European cable network

The news that had been rumbling has finally come through as today ESPN announced that they had agreed to buy NASN from Setenta Sports, with the deal being finalised early in the new year. The deal worth around £62m includes ESPN taking over all current TV rights that Setenta owns for the NASN channel.

The main question is now whether the channel will move off the 'stand alone' setup and on to a standard Sky package or whether it'll mainline a subscription channel. As I understand it ESPN's intention is to bundle it with the Sky Sports World package and establish themselves in the mainstream UK & Europe market with intentions to bid for the English Premiership Football Rights as well as the NFL Rights when both come up again, in 2010 and 2011 respectively.

In the short term, one thing that this news will definitely mean is the return of all eoe programming, including Pardon The Interruption, Around The Horn, Baseball Tonight and for the 2007 season for the first time, Sportscenter will be shown in the UK.

ESPN already have a footprint in the European market with the ESPN Classic channel. It is still unclear whether or not ESPN will be applying for a second channel on the Sky EPG to have an ESPN UK and ESPN UK 2, but the channel will be rebranded ESPN UK when the deal is complete in January.

Baseball wise there will be very little difference for the 2007 season, NASN already show 250 games live each regular season and ESPN's own Sunday Night Baseball will still be shown on terrestrial television in the UK on five.tv